Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,248 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Utah @ BYU
There’s a lot of last year in this line.
But this isn’t last year, and this Utah team—young though it may be—now has a full season of playing together under its belt. Both these guys are probably bubble teams. They’re just bubble teams for different tournaments.
Pick: Utah to win +105. Low confidence.
Clemson vs. Alabama
Fire against ice. Alabama’s going to want to run. Clemson’s going to want to crawl.
It’s fair to be concerned by Clemson’s perimeter defense and defensive rebounding, which are not strengths. But there’s enough advantage elsewhere to outweigh that concern, and the way Alabama plays, it’s fair to question whether the normal measures of effectiveness fully apply: Does defending Purdue’s shooters require the same skill set as defending Alabama’s? Partially. Does keeping Mississippi State off the glass mean the same thing as keeping Alabama from hauling in longer rebounds? No.
The Tigers are the better team, playing at a neutral site. It’s tight on this one, but there’s value at a few books that still have this where it opened.
Pick: Clemson -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
