Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,894 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
One college basketball pick, then the Army/Navy game:
Arizona @ Illinois (Men’s Basketball)
There are plenty of questions here, but basically, we’re curious how good Arizona is and how good Illinois is.
Arizona’s covered just about every spread this year. They ran Michigan off the court in Las Vegas over Thanksgiving weekend. They’re young, long, and talented. There’s an argument to be made that they’ve yet to find their ceiling.
Illinois has been more up and down. They were missing Kofi Cockburn when they fell on their face at Marquette, and it was his first game back when Cincinnati smoked them in Kansas City. Now, Andre Curbelo’s out.
A curious thing’s happened, though, with Curbelo gone. In the last three games, Illinois has played very, very well. They handled Notre Dame rather easily in Champaign. They smoked Rutgers. They beat Iowa on the road this past Monday. I don’t know that I’d say Illinois is better without Curbelo—they struggled more than they should have against UT-Rio Grande Valley in his first game out—but we do have three pretty good data points on Illinois over these last three games, and they’re largely positive.
For Arizona, meanwhile, a lot of stock’s being placed in that win over Michigan. In the game before that, the Wildcats almost lost in overtime to Wichita State. Had they lost that game, which was a tossup entering the extra period, I believe they would have played UNLV rather than Michigan. Their one game against a top-100 opponent would have been a loss, and while the ratings systems still would have been impressed, my guess is that doubt would have been at the forefront rather than excitement.
Arizona didn’t lose to Wichita State. They did smoke Michigan. But to say with confidence that they’re better than Illinois, and better enough to be three-point favorites on the road? That’s a stretch.
Pick: Illinois +3 (-110). Medium confidence.
Army vs. Navy (Football)
The Army/Navy under has been money for a good while now. It’s been eight years since the teams topped 40 points, ten since they topped 45, and sixteen since they topped 50. Over the last fifteen years, the average total has been slightly below 35. Over the last five, it’s been below 30.
The market’s adjusting. That’s what markets do. But given how these teams play, and given how much of a mess Navy’s been this year, this is still worth a shot. It’s a jarringly low total, but it might not be low enough.
Pick: Under 35 (-110). Low confidence.
