Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,466 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,603 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
World Cup futures, college basketball plays, the FCS playoffs, and the Army/Navy game. For context on the World Cup portfolio: We started with fifty units in our World Cup bankroll. So far, we’ve profited by 12.5 units and have five more pending. That’s all before today’s play.
2022 World Cup
We still have more to gain from Morocco winning today, but with value available on Portugal, we’ll raise our floor. What’s happening here mechanically is that SPI doesn’t think as much of France as the market does. It’s showing value on all three of Morocco, Portugal, and England. We’ll see how that turns out for us.
Pick: Portugal to reach final +225. Low confidence.
Holy Cross @ South Dakota State
The spread on this one has risen by as many as five points in some books since it opened, and that leaves the Jacks just too big a favorite for us to take with the points involved. We do, though, assume them to win, and we’re not above nickeling and diming here and there.
Pick: South Dakota State to win -1400. Medium confidence.
Army vs. Navy
Why not?
In seriousness, six of the last ten installments of this rivalry and four of the last five have resulted in totals below this number, and neither is having a particularly strong offensive season. We do think this is the play, even if it’s a terrifying number.
Pick: Under 32 (-110). Low confidence.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Northwestern State
We don’t know what’s going on with Nika Metskhvarishvili, but in his absence, ULM’s played about in line with prior expectations. So, we’re fine taking them on the road here. KenPom should have adjusted enough by now to be giving a fairly true read.
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +8 (-110). Low confidence.
Maryland-Eastern Shore @ Duke
UMES isn’t terrible. They’ve beaten a few Division-I teams, they’re expected to be in the middle of MEAC, they’re bad but they aren’t atrocious. This is a hard line to predict, partially because Duke is deservedly so big a favorite, but we like it to stay in the 20’s.
Pick: UMES +32 (-110). Low confidence.
