Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 948 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
An undermentioned portion of Atlanta’s success last year came from young pitching. Mike Soroka and Max Fried were each among the NL’s 20 best starting pitchers, with Soroka third among qualifiers in ERA. This year, the hope—one would assume—would be for Kyle Wright to take a similar step, especially with Soroka now out for the year.
So far, the results for Wright have been mixed. The 2017 fifth overall pick has failed to get out of the fourth inning in either of his two starts, and while the latter of the two was scoreless, he did walk four batters and allow half of the hitters he faced to reach base.
Wright’s FIP over his six innings is a positive sign, checking in at 3.83, but with his xwOBA only marginally better than his wOBA (.388 vs. .394), other small-sample size stats indicate the 7.50 ERA might not be terribly misleading after all.
Don’t be surprised to see a lot of bullpen action this evening from the visitors.
Pick: Philadelphia +1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
Baltimore @ Washington
Yesterday, the total was nine for this game, and it looked weird. Today, it’s closer to expectations (my numbers have 11.5 with the over at -115), but still unusual.
It’s possible some of this is park factor. I use an average of the last two years, both of which saw Nationals Park land in the top five for hitters. Back in 2016, though, Nationals Park wound up slightly pitcher-friendly, meaning it’s possible these last two seasons have been at least a mild aberration.
It’s also possible there’s a difference of opinion on the quality of the Nationals’ offense, but this would be unusual.
Finally, there’s the possibility the market really likes the Orioles’ pitching, a possibility that, if true, deserves more questioning.
It’s very unusual to have this disparate of a line. It’s possible my numbers are leading me astray. But without a significant red flag staring us in the face, we might as well take the obvious play while it’s here.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Seattle
Ryan Castellani will start today for Colorado rather than Chi Chi Gonzalez, who’s dealing with some tendinitis in his biceps.
Castellani’s minor league numbers aren’t pretty. His projections aren’t pretty either. But Gonzalez isn’t exactly a pitcher to count on, and neither is Nick Margevicius, Castellani’s opponent.
It could be a weird one in Seattle, but the Rockies still have the edge.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-185). Low confidence.
