Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,497 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The odds for the future come from Bovada because there’s no consistently current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though:
Texas @ Oakland
The AL rookie fWAR leader, if he is indeed a rookie? Cole Irvin, Oakland’s third starter in a strong top three (who doesn’t show up on Baseball Reference’s list, sowing some confusion). He goes today as the A’s hope to gain another game on the Astros.
Pick: Oakland -1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
Washington @ Atlanta
No, I still don’t know how Charlie Morton’s doing the spin rate thing, but he’s still doing it.
Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Los Angeles
Since the beginning of the 2019 season, among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 250 innings, Julio Urías is 13th in FIP, trailing only Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Brandon Woodruff, Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Charlie Morton, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, and Sonny Gray.
Pretty good company.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
World Series
Last night demonstrated a somewhat freaky potential solution to any prospective Yankees rotation problems in October. The Yankees could just throw a full bullpen game. Every game, even, if they wanted to. So if two top-25 pitchers by fWAR isn’t enough for you, even at these odds, think on the bullpen.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1800. Low confidence.
