Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,717 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we look heavily towards our own model.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines, single-game college football, and a little more IndyCar.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 153–130–3 so far this year, down 5.62 units. Over the last three-ish weeks, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 41–28, up 7.18 units. It’s gone well, but we haven’t been able to get over the hump yet and reattain profitability.
Single-game college football bets: Our history here is mediocre. We’re 3–2 so far this season, though, up 0.65 units.
IndyCar: Our published IndyCar history is very, very weak. Be forewarned. We have had private success betting ovals, but be forewarned.
San Diego @ Tampa Bay
Heat Index’s first choice lost again last night, but it’s still 17–6 over this stretch, up 5.05 units. Today, it switches to the Padres, who got back to their winning ways last night.
Pick: San Diego to win +114. Low confidence. (Vásquez and Baz must start.)
Boston @ Detroit
Heat Index’s second choice is now 8–0, up 7.08 units. Today, the Tigers slide down into this spot, but Tarik Skubal gives them a good chance to get right again today.
Pick: Detroit to win –134. Low confidence. (Pivetta and Skubal must start.)
St. Louis @ New York (AL)
Heat Index’s third choice finally won last night, getting to 1–3 over its young history. The Yankees take this slot today. Our three-week sample is reflecting a hotter Phillies team than it was yesterday.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –162. Low confidence. (Gibson and Warren must start.)
South Dakota State @ Oklahoma State
We spent a lot of energy this week trying to tell people North Dakota State isn’t that good anymore. We would now like you to know the opposite about South Dakota State. This is a top-25 caliber program. This team should be around that level. They might beat Oklahoma State outright today. We like this one.
Pick: South Dakota State +13 (–115). Low confidence.
Idaho State @ Oregon State
For our other FBS vs. FCS pick (this is one of the few arenas Movelor’s had early-season success), we like the Beavers. Idaho State’s reputation probably benefits from the Big Sky’s strength and from conflation with Idaho. Oregon State’s entering a tough rebuild, but they shouldn’t be the 18 points worse this line implies them to be.
Pick: Oregon State –25.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Hy-Vee Milwaukee Mile 250 Race 1
We talked about this more yesterday, but these all follow the same theme: Team Penske is very, very good on ovals.
Pick: Will Power to beat Scott Dixon –120. Low confidence.
Pick: Scott McLaughlin to finish top 3 (+125). Low confidence.
Pick: Winning Car Engine – Chevrolet (–175). Low confidence. x2
