Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 999 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Doubleheader: Chicago (NL) @ Cincinnati
In the first game of today’s doubleheader, Yu Darvish is squaring off against Trevor Bauer in a matchup of two Cy Young contenders.
The wind’s blowing out in Cincinnati, though, and even without Kris Bryant and Nick Senzel, today’s lineups project strongly. Game 1 could be a pitcher’s duel, but at these odds, it’s better to bet on something going wrong for at least one starter. And Game 2, of course, does not have the Cy Young contender facet.
Game 1 Pick: Over 6 (+105). Low confidence.
Game 2 Pick: Over 7 (-115). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Miami
Speaking of Cy Young contenders, keep an eye on Pablo López. The 24 year-old is putting up numbers in Miami, with a 1.98 ERA and 2.42 FIP over five starts. The jury’s out on whether the Marlins are really a playoff contender, but they certainly have pieces.
Pick: Miami -1.5 (+175). Low confidence.
