Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,511 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.6% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
College football returns (some MLB picks below).
Nebraska @ Illinois
To peel back the curtain a little: We don’t have a great track record on college football, but we’ve never been particularly consistent with our methodology. With that established: Nebraska and UCLA were comparably advantageous-looking plays today, with Nebraska the slightly better of the two. Getting the line at seven provides a little push cushion, and while I wouldn’t put it past Bret Bielema to figure things out at Illinois, Nebraska has a bit more stability coming into this one, for whatever that’s worth.
Pick: Nebraska -7 (-110). Low confidence.
Now, the baseball:
Houston @ Texas
The Astros are looking healthier again as they try to chase down the Rays for home field advantage in the American League.
Pick: Houston -1.5 (-150). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Chicago (AL)
I adore Alec Mills, but the Cubs bullpen isn’t very good and Mills isn’t going nine today (his xERA’s close enough to projections that his FIP overperformance isn’t a red flag for me at the moment).
Pick: Chicago (AL) -1.5 (-145). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
There are a few reasons to act with caution around this one—Jon Gray’s been solid, Max Muncy’s out—but the top half of the Dodgers’ bullpen is ready to go, and they still have those bats.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
