Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 462 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Five picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
MLB
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Cleveland is in a dog fight for a playoff spot, and Mike Clevinger is leading the cause. In just thirteen starts on the year, the righty’s compiled a 3.11 ERA and a 2.47 FIP, 13th and second among the 149 pitchers with 70 or more innings on the year.
Had Clevinger been healthy the entire season, he might be a Cy Young contender right now. Instead, he’s only one of the best pitching assets in the MLB, looking to play an important role come October.
Pick: Under 9 (-105). Low confidence.
Atlanta @ New York (NL)
Zach Wheeler’s got a 4.40 ERA.
Nothing special.
But his 3.52 FIP has led to him accumulating 3.5 fWAR, 18th among qualified pitchers.
Wheeler’s ERA/FIP gap is the second-largest (in the unlucky direction) for any qualified pitcher, trailing only that of Chris Sale. His .314 opposing BABIP figures to drop. His 67.4% LOB rate figures to rise. The Mets might not quite make it to October, but if they do, don’t sleep on their seeming fourth starter.
Pick: New York (NL) to win (-110). Low confidence.
Boston @ San Diego
Dinelson Lamet has never been a notable part of the Padres rise to farm system dominance. Never a top prospect, he was solid in his 2017 rookie season (4.35 FIP), then vanished in 2018 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery.
Now, he’s back, and his 3.83 FIP would be in the MLB’s top 30 had he posted enough innings to qualify.
It’s unclear whether this 41-inning sample is representative of the whole, but combined with his previous strong performance, it’s enough to make one wonder whether behind the big name of Chris Paddack, Lamet might be a strong piece of the Padres’ rotation when contending days come.
Pick: San Diego to win (+108). Low confidence.
College Football
Youngstown State @ Samford
Devlin Hodges—the FCS record-holder in career passing yards—is gone from Samford, trying to make an NFL roster (he’s in the Steelers’ camp right now).
It’s unclear who will fill his role today, between juniors Liam Welch and Chris Oladokun (Oladokun is a transfer from USF). But while Hodges and top wide receiver Kelvin McKnight are gone, Samford does return seven offensive starters from a team that, for all its struggles, likely underperformed its true talent level last season. The cupboard isn’t exactly bare.
Pick: Samford +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Arizona @ Hawaii
Hawaii’s football program has only made two bowls since 2010. But in Nick Rolovich’s fourth year, with junior quarterback Cole McDonald providing some stability under center, they’ve got the offense to give teams trouble. And while Arizona’s defense made progress last year, they’ve got a ways to go before competing in the Pac-12.
Hawaii isn’t a Power Five team—not literally, of course, but also not in caliber. But Week Zero’s late-night feature will be a telling test for a program trying to get themselves into a competitive state.
Pick: Hawaii +11 (-110). Low confidence.
