Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 980 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Game 1: Miami @ Washington
With some rain in the forecast, and the game only seven innings, there’s a better chance than there’d otherwise be that the Marlins can keep it within one against Max Scherzer. Even over nine innings on a sunny day, those chances would be good enough to give this pick a look.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
The Depth Charts projections on FanGraphs currently have Paul DeJong amassing 0.8 WAR over the Cardinals’ remaining 45 games. Compared to his stand-in, Tommy Edman, that’s a 0.7-win difference, which translates to a 1.6-point decrease in win probability for an individual game.
There’s been a discount on the Cardinals since they returned from the coronavirus outbreak, and that makes sense—they were short-handed. But while it’s starting to recede, it’s still larger than it should be.
Pick: St. Louis -1.5 (+145). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
Nolan Arenado has struggled at the plate through the season’s first month. The face of the Rockies is sporting a dismal 74 wRC+.
That might turn around soon.
While Arenado’s certainly been a worse hitter than normal—his exit velocity’s a full mph and a half lower than it’s ever been over the last five seasons—he’s also been hindered by a .174 BABIP and a wOBA that sits 28 points lower than his xwOBA. This latter point is especially uncharacteristic from a hitter who, over the last five seasons, has always seen his wOBA overperform his xwOBA by at least 24 points.
The expectation is that he’ll turn it around soon, even if he isn’t quite a 125 wRC+ hitter this year.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
