Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,507 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Minnesota @ New York (AL)
I don’t know if I’d classify the enforcement of baseball’s sticky stuff rule as adversity, but given he’s also dealt with Covid, I think it’s fair to say Gerrit Cole hasn’t had a particularly fun year. And yet.
And yet his xERA is better than last year’s.
And yet his FIP is better than last year’s.
And yet he’s striking out more batters than last year.
And yet he’s walking fewer batters than last year.
Cole’s numbers are worse since the sticky stuff ban was put in place, but even with that, he’s put up a 3.91 FIP over his last nine starts, and over his last five, that number’s 2.08, with four of the outings coming against World Series contenders and the fifth his return from dealing with the coronavirus.
Gerrit Cole’s still got it.
Pick: New York (AL) -1.5 (-125). Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Los Angeles
Speaking of people who still have it, Max Scherzer pitches this afternoon for the Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-140). Low confidence.
Texas @ Boston
Eduardo Rodriguez has had his struggles this year, but they appear to mostly be bad luck. The guy’s got a 4.97 ERA, but his xERA’s down at 3.66, his FIP’s at 3.34, and he’s allowed an absurd .357 BABIP. The Red Sox pitching staff is in sneakily good shape.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (-170). Low confidence.
