Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 966 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Cleveland @ Detroit
The Tigers are weirdly in the playoff mix in the American League, and Spencer Turnbull’s done his part. Through three starts, the sophomore’s only allowed four earned runs while striking out a healthy batter per inning. Better yet, each start—so far—has been better than the last.
Turnbull pitched well to begin 2019, finishing the front half of June with a sub-3.00 ERA before fading over the season’s second part. It remains to be seen if he’ll keep it up this year, and regression should be expected, but even a regressing Turnbull isn’t a bad pitcher to take a chance on against a middling Cleveland offense with the wind blowing in.
Pick: Detroit to win +160. Low confidence.
Oakland @ San Francisco
It’s tough to score runs in San Francisco, and with Ramón Laureano serving his suspension, it should be that much harder for the A’s.
Pick: San Francisco +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Washington @ Baltimore
The Nationals are once again off to a poor start, but it’s fair to wonder if they’re being undervalued, as they were last year. Yes, Stephen Strasburg’s hand is a concern, and yes, Starlin Castro’s injury is a problem, and no, they no longer have Anthony Rendon, so their ceiling likely isn’t as high as that of last year’s team. Still, they’re good enough to put the Orioles away again tonight, especially with Patrick Corbin on the bump.
Pick: Washington -1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
