Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 424 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Anaheim @ Boston
Mike Trout enters tonight with 7.6 fWAR. The Angels have played 117 games. Trout has played in 110 of those. Were he to play in that same portion (94%) of their remaining games, and produce at the same rate he has to date, he’d finish the season with 10.5 fWAR, the highest total for an individual player since Barry Bonds in 2004 (when Bonds had a .609 OBP).
Using bWAR, it’s a different narrative (Trout is only on pace for 10.2 bWAR, as is Cody Bellinger, and Mookie Betts finished last year with 10.9 in that metric), but a similar overall message, which is basically that Mike Trout is really good.
Pick: Anaheim to win (+132). Low confidence.
Cleveland @ Minnesota
The 32nd overall pick out of high school in 2008, Jake Odorizzi has been playing professional baseball for more than a decade. And while he’s had some success (9.6 career fWAR entering this year), he’s struggled to be as valuable as the Brewers, who drafted him, presumably hoped he could be. He’s bounced around from Milwaukee’s system to Kansas City’s, from a debut with the Royals to time with the Rays, and from the Tampa Bay to Minnesota, where he has flourished with the Twins.
Odorizzi’s seven wins and 4.49 ERA in 2018 might not have looked like much, but with over 160 innings at a 4.20 FIP, it was good for 2.7 fWAR, his second-highest total. And this year is going even better. The righty’s on pace to hit 160 innings again, this time with a 3.95 FIP, which translates to 3.4 fWAR, which would likely be near the top 30 for major league pitchers.
The Twins have some work to do to earn themselves a Division Series berth (FanGraphs has their chances at 77.4%—solid, but not a lock). Should they make it, though, and do so with their rotation at full health, Odorizzi figures, at this point, to slot in as the starter in one of the first two games, with which one depending on whether they need a wild card game to get there or not.
At 29, Odorizzi figures to have a good bit of career left. He’s rounding into form at the right time.
Pick: Minnesota to win (-143). Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ St. Louis
While the Pirates have tumbled into 14th place in the National League (an evident launching pad, if the experiences of the previous residents—Washington, New York, and San Francisco—are an indicator), they have a lot to be optimistic about going into next year. While that optimism mostly focuses on Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds, there’s reason to believe their rotation could surprise. Jameson Taillon should, as of now, return before the 2020 All-Star Break. Trevor Williams, who will turn only 28 in the season’s first month, figures most likely to bounce back to a 2-3 fWAR level. Steven Brault, just four days younger than Williams, has posted encouraging results. It’s hard to imagine Chris Archer could be worse than he’s been this season.
And then there’s Joe Musgrove.
Pittsburgh’s closest thing to an ace this year has been the 6’5” right-hander with the deceptive fastball (his fastball velocity is only in the 29th percentile, but his spin rate is in the 83rd). In what’s effectively been his first full major league season, as he spent the first two months of 2018 mainly on what was then the DL, Musgrove has a 4.23 FIP. Nothing remarkable (41st among the 64 pitchers with 120 or more innings), but not bad for a middle-of-the-rotation starter. And as the youngest of the Pirates’ hurlers, in theory he should have the most room to grow.
For the time being, he has the unfortunate responsibility of being the Pirates’ best starting option in their battle to keep the Marlins outside of arm’s reach. But come next year, when Pittsburgh will likely be forecast by pretty much everyone to finish last in the division, he figures to be in a key role in their attempt to stay competitive.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win (+150). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 9 (-115). Medium confidence.
