Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,125 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures, though at this point, that too is pretty much exclusively kenpom. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, college basketball futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 3–6 so far, down 3.71 units. It’s been a bad first week and two days.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week (lost about five percent of the portfolio), and we then rallied (making half of that back), and then we were about to be in a great spot heading into this weekend but Duke lost and Indiana State lost, sending us to a projected eROI, right now, of –21% based on our model’s probabilities. We’re heavily in on Purdue and Alabama. We really need one of those two to win tonight.
Cleveland @ Minnesota
It’s been going badly. Not only are the results bad, but we’re having to accept more red flags than we did through the first few months of last season. We just aren’t seeing a lot of value in the market. It’s possible it adjusted after last year.
Today’s red flag is that Carlos Carrasco pitched well in his first outing of the year. Five innings, three strikeouts, one walk, no home runs, and not a lot of hard contact. Thankfully, it was against the A’s, so we’re not accepting too much, but that’s what we’re up against.
Pick: Minnesota to win –159. Low confidence. Carrasco and Ryan must start.
NCAA Tournament
We’re putting thirteen more units on Purdue, this time in the championship market. That leaves our outstanding futures as follows:
| Bet Category | Units | Potential Payout |
| Deficit So Far | 61.73 | 0 |
| Dead Weight | 35 | 0 |
| Alabama SF | 3 | 16.5 |
| Purdue SF | 39 | 9.1 |
| Alabama Champ | 6 | 134 |
| Purdue Champ | 22 | 73.1 |
Purdue alone can’t get us to profitability, given what we’ve already bet. But, if they win tonight, we keep some hope alive, while if Alabama pulls off the giant upset tonight, we’re suddenly in good shape again. It’s a bad situation, but it’s where we are. More to come tomorrow and/or Monday, regardless of what happens out there tonight.
Pick: Purdue to win tournament +220. Low confidence. x13
