Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say this isn’t all that great, but over a sample size of 185 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 1% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the games.
Baltimore @ Minnesota
The Twins haven’t garnered a lot of attention so far this year. Yet, they lead the AL Central (by percentage points), they’re slightly more likely to make the playoffs than not (according to both Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight), and their lineup packs enough efficient value to make Billy Beane blush.
This isn’t a criticism of the media for not making the Twins a top story. It’s late April, so things have a while to shake out, and the exact things that make the Twins interesting are keeping them from being quote-unquote exciting. Add to that the fact that about 35% of their games will be played against intradivision foes in the throes of rebuilds (or just plain futility), and the Twins are, at this point, not offering the press much to talk about.
But this is a niche blog, so let’s talk about the Twins.
Eddie Rosario continues to thrill, having already tossed in 1.1 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR (big defensive discrepancy between the two) despite apparent bad luck at the plate (his .222 BABIP looks destined to rise dramatically, especially given his speed). At 27, he’s entering his prime, and he might well be an MVP candidate when all is said and done this year (I couldn’t find current odds, but his 40/1 status from back in spring training would be enticing if offered now).
Leading the Twins in the average of fWAR and bWAR is shortstop Jorge Polanco (his 1.4 average narrowly edges Rosario’s 1.35), and while he looks poised to regress (his BABIP is .368), he too is young (25) and has a history of above-average BABIP, meaning even with regression, this might be a breakthrough season.
In the rotation, Jose Berrios has posted quality starts in all but his last outing (in which he missed the designation by one run), and though he’s poised for some regression (ERA of 2.97, FIP of 4.37), a sub-4.00 ERA is far from unlikely. Kyle Gibson, following a small breakout in 2018, is off to a rough start (6.10 ERA), but at least he’s gotten better each start, and Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Martin Perez have all been solid, if not excellent.
In the bullpen, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers, Ryne Harper, Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger, and Tyler Duffey have all been effective, and besides Rosario and Polanco, the lineup has gotten strong contributions from Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, and Jonathan Schoop, all while Byron Buxton continues to excel defensively.
They might not have enough firepower to reach the ALCS, but the lads in Minnesota look poised to keep the playoff chase interesting in the American League. It should be a fun summer up North.
Pick: Minnesota to win -250. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ San Francisco
The most likely Yankees defensive alignment tonight seems to be something like the following:
P – JA Happ
C – Gary Sanchez
1B – Luke Voit
2B – DJ LeMahieu
SS – Gleyber Torres
3B – Giovanny Urshela
LF – Tyler Wade
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Mike Tauchman
Now, there will probably be some differences. Given they’re facing Derek Holland, a lefty, we’re more likely than not to see Cameron Maybin in there again. There’s a chance Mike Ford or Thairo Estrada will spell someone. It wouldn’t be shocking if Austin Romine got another start at catcher.
But for the sake of examining how the Yankees continue to compete without Judge or Stanton or Gregorius or Hicks or Andujar or Frazier or Bird or Tulowitzki, not to mention all the pitchers on the IL, and Logan Morrison, who’s day-to-day, I looked at the average wRC+ of those eight position players, weighted by plate appearances.
It came out to 111. Which means this group is 11% better than a collection of league-average hitters.
That isn’t the best in the league (the Astros are at 126, and the Mariners are at 125), but it’s in the top ten. Combine that with James Paxton and Domingo German pitcher heroically, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka pitching well, and that U.S.A-in-1966-esque arsenal waiting in the bullpen, and suddenly the wins make a lot of sense.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -102. Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ New York (NL)
If the trends of the last five years persist, the Mets will be a roller coaster over the next few months. They’ve been uncharacteristically fine on the injury front (it’s odd to call a team missing Yoenis Cespedes and Jed Lowrie and just last night getting Jacob deGrom back “fine” on injuries, but here we are), and for how loud and unconventional their offseason was, their current roster composition isn’t all that striking. Michael Conforto is quietly good again, Robinson Cano has contributed well enough thus far, and deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have pitched fairly well, even if their ERA’s (and deGrom’s outing last night) indicate otherwise.
For the time being, they look like a very average team, stuck on the fringe of the playoffs, stuck on the fringe of rebuilding versus contending, and stuck on the fringe of whatever disasters will or won’t materialize as the season marches on.
What an odd franchise.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -132. Low confidence.
