Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,367 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
New York (AL) @ Cleveland
Gerrit Cole is pitching against Shane Bieber, and this is very possibly a dumb bet. Not because of Cole vs. Bieber, though. No, it might be a dumb bet because I might have the park factor wrong in Cleveland, as I wrote about here yesterday. Still trying to figure that out, but in the meantime, the expected payout here is the best I get on totals, making this a good place to take a final stand with Progressive Field overs if such a stand is indeed necessary.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+100). Low confidence.
Toronto @ Tampa Bay
Bullpen day for the Rays. Start for the Ray.
Robbie Ray has been wild so far, walking nine in ten innings while striking out just six. He’s gotten away with it, and he won’t get away with it forever, but at the same time, it’s just been two starts. Just two. And he hasn’t been hit all that hard.
Pick: Toronto to win +110. Low confidence.
