Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,805 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Two picks for the Final Four, one baseball play:
San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic
In the first game, we see these two as close enough for it to nearly be a tossup. Does the dome help San Diego State? Maybe. But FAU was already going to have to score inside to beat these guys. Give us the Owls.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
UConn vs. Miami
In the second one, we’ll take the dome, especially with Jordan Hawkins sick, whether he plays or not.
Pick: Under 149 (-110). Low confidence.
Colorado @ San Diego
We’re looking for an MLB win, and the value here is decent enough to take it. The Padres are the better team by a lot, and Michael Wacha’s coming off a good season in Boston. That’s enough for us.
Pick: San Diego to win -225. Low confidence. (Ureña and Wacha must start)
