Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,359 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Tampa Bay @ New York (AL)
Coming off a healthy, if short, 2020, there’s reason to hope on Jordan Montgomery returning to his 2017 form (or, better yet, maintaining his 2020 form, when his 5.11 ERA grossly underrepresented his 3.87 FIP performance). So far, it hasn’t been great, but don’t overweight his last start, which is what this line seems to be doing.
Pick: New York +1.5 (-170). Low confidence.
Game 1: New York (NL) @ Colorado
Jacob deGrom’s pitching in a seven-inning game. Don’t overthink it.
Pick: New York to win -280. Medium confidence.
