Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,822 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just two markets today—we don’t do MLB futures on regular season weekends.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 11–5, we’re up 5.51 units, we’re up 34% (the average line on our winners has been -105). That 34% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice few weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Philadelphia @ Cincinnati
There aren’t any slam dunks on the board today, but of the five where we like the value (this one, Twins, Royals, Cubs, Rockies), this is our play today. To be transparent: Part of this is that it’s the shortest odds, which is beneficial for our overall win-loss record and therefore cultivating this little following we have. A bigger part, though, is that we think Matt Strahm is severely undervalued by the market. His starts keep flashing as good options, and while the Phillies’ bullpen is a bit spent after last night, so is the Reds’.
Pick: Philadelphia to win -105. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
As with yesterday and the Nuggets, we’re already doubling down here on the Sixers. We like other teams, but this is the best value we’re seeing from a line at 10-to-1 or shorter and a team that’s playing today. Add it to the mix.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +450. Low confidence.
