Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,287 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines. Futures will return on Monday (and we’re hoping to do NBA futures again, but we need to decide how to go about that).
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 6–11 so far, down 5.21 units. It’s been a bad start, but we did have a nice mid-April run last year, so we’re hoping to turn it around quickly. One difference: We only did one bet a day last year. Yesterday, we placed two, and we’re trying four today, looking to diversify our approach a little bit as we try to shake the funk.
Washington @ Oakland
We’re concerned about rain affecting this one, but rain might favor the A’s, who have the worse starting pitcher and less key bullpen unavailable.
Pick: Oakland to win +126. Low confidence. (Gore and Boyle must start.)
Anaheim @ Boston
As we talked about a lot with yesterday’s picks, a pitcher with poor results through two starts isn’t cursed or anything. Instead, we like betting against these guys because we’re more confident that they won’t over-perform their expectations. That’s what’s happening with Griffin Canning in this one.
Pick: Boston to win –103. Low confidence. (Canning and Criswell must start.)
St. Louis @ Arizona
Again, starting pitching is the story. We don’t think the Cardinals should terribly concerned about Kyle Gibson just yet, but we also aren’t terribly concerned he’ll shut the D-Backs down tonight.
Pick: Arizona to win –106. Low confidence. (Gibson and Nelson must start.)
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Finally, we like the Padres here. Rain may play a role, but the Padres managed to get through last night with fewer key bullpenners throwing more than 15 pitches or pitching across innings. Matt Waldron’s been solid so far for San Diego.
Pick: San Diego to win +168. Low confidence. (Waldron and Stone must start.)
