Nice little 5–1 day yesterday. Let’s see if we can replicate something close to that.
Seattle at Houston
We’ve got a refreshed sample and a new set of matchups, and Heat Index’s choices are at least for today unchanged. Its second choice is the Mariners, despite our own discomfort betting against Hunter Brown.
Pick: Seattle to win –102. 0.96 units to win 0.94. Woo and Brown must start.
Milwaukee at St. Louis
Its first choice is the Brewers. Again, betting against a good pitcher here. But Heat Index has performed well. It’s up to 56–30 against an average price of –153 this year.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –110. 1.04 units to win 0.95. Misiorowski and Gray must start.
NLCS
Still value on the Mets, whose lead for a playoff spot is now two and a half games.
Pick: New York to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
ALCS
Value on the Yankees as well, with their path now likeliest to include the Astros, Red Sox, or Guardians in the Wild Card Series (as opposed to the Mariners, who are possible but less likely and would be scarier on paper).
Pick: New York to win +425. 2.00 units to win 8.50.
Tulsa at Oklahoma State
Tulsa has outperformed Movelor’s expectations so far and Oklahoma State has underperformed Movelor’s expectations. Neither’s done it by a lot, though. Tulsa’s 2–1 against Movelor’s spread, with a power rating up 3.6 points from where it sat preseason. Oklahoma State’s 1–1 against its own Movelor spreads and is down 2.0 points. Both of those are less than the Division I average.
I bring that all up because we aren’t that concerned about Movelor not being caught up yet on these guys. More likely, the 9.8-point discrepancy with this line is about things like momentum and matchups, two pieces which are easy to overrate.
Pick: Oklahoma State –10.5 (–110). 0.52 units to win 0.47.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –478.09 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 759 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
