Our West Coast ACC Wednesdays theory kind of worked out last night. Cal did cover, but we didn’t hit the accompanying over, and Stanford lost outright as a favorite, doing damage to the credibility of the theory itself. Staying in the Bay Area…a little WCC hoops:
Saint Mary’s @ San Francisco
There are conflicting feelings here.
On one hand, Saint Mary’s is probably overvalued by the public “vibe.” I am proudly mostly unaware of the AP Poll, but at 20–3 with only a 23rd-place ranking in kenpom, they’re the kind of team who gets overvalued, especially coming off a win over Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s has played four top-50 kenpom teams and gone 2–2. They’ve played six top-60 kenpom teams and gone 3–3. They’re unbeaten against teams ranked 59th or worse right now, and San Francisco fits that description, but the Gaels are not the dominant force out west that I think a lot of us want them to be.
On the other, this is San Francisco, a program so poorly supported that given the chance at a monumental home game against Gonzaga last year, the athletic department opted to leave campus, forfeiting home-court advantage to play in the Chase Center. (The Chase Center ended up only ~35% full.) San Francisco hasn’t beaten Saint Mary’s since January of 2019. Coaches have come and gone, and Randy Bennett’s teams have beaten them.
The 4.5-point line scares me. Saint Mary’s may be unbeaten against the Dons over the last 73 months, but three of those games ended up within four points, and the Gaels’ slow pace and poor shooting makes them a bad candidate to obliterate fools. They do it—they’ve won eight of their ten WCC games by double digits, and five by at least twenty—but this is not Prime Gonzaga blowing the roof off every small, catholic gym within shouting distance of the Pacific.
We’re going to roll with SMC. To do otherwise feels like overthinking it, and we like that the market seems to lean in SMC’s direction. (The kenpom line is 4.) But we’re nervous.
Pick: Saint Mary’s –4.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Pick: Under 131 (–108). 10.00 units to win 9.26.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –96.29 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 59 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
