One of the hardest parts about Champ Week, to me, is trying to figure out whether we’re seeing the ball well or not with these bets. We have enough long-term data to know our streakiness is real and not just random. But with the basketball situation changing so quickly between late-stage regular season, conference tournament, NCAA Tournament, and NIT, it’s tough to know if what’s worked in one situation will continue to work in the next.
For the time being, it doesn’t affect us too much. We’re placing two bets a day from now through Selection Sunday, plus potentially a few futures here and there. But as we approach next week and decide how much of the NCAA Tournament and NIT to bet, we recognize that volatility could soon get very high. That makes 2–0 days like yesterday exciting but scary, and 0–4 weekends like this weekend scary but sobering.
UNC Wilmington vs. Delaware
The reason this is so much lower than kenpom (which has it at 159) is probably concerns about Delaware’s fatigue. It’s possible UNCW’s poorer shooting last night is shaping it as well, but we’re seeing more about Delaware’s fatigue, and that would track with other conference tournament total trends.
The fatigue is real. Five games in five days is a lot. But even if the impact exists and points this direction, it’s not going to function like some magic switch. There isn’t going to be a moment when Delaware is suddenly tired. The Blue Hens had no problems running and scoring last night. Are they going to be that much more exhausted for this one? And if they are, couldn’t that lead to more scoring opportunities for the favorites?
Pick: Over 148 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga
Saint Mary’s has beaten Gonzaga twice this year, but they’re an underdog here, and understandably so. Kenpom has the line at two. Most would consider Gonzaga to be the other team.
It’s kenpom having this line at only two which makes us like the Gaels here. Kenpom’s great, but if anything it’s been high on Gonzaga over the last few years.
Pick: Saint Mary’s +3.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –83.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 131 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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