Today’s Best Bets: Sad Basketball

Great comeback by SLU last night, but I wish we would’ve bet on ejections happening. The fan fight a few years ago was too good an omen for us to pass up.


Notre Dame at Pitt

This game has major Sad potential, and we’re going to bet on it being the under kind of sad.

Pick: Under 138.5 (–110). 4.67 units to win 4.25.

Texas at Georgia

Georgia needs this worse than Texas does. Texas looked a little lackadaisical against LSU. Texas has Florida coming up this week, then College Station next weekend. Good spot for Mike White’s Dawgs.

Pick: Georgia –3 (–110). 4.67 units to win 4.25.

Iowa State at BYU

I don’t know how much the Arizona game was a sign of BYU’s post-Saunders approach, but the chance is high enough that they’re a slower team now to make this our angle. The Iowa State spread’s a little big for a game in Provo after a huge win. But it’s also too small for a game against post-Saunders BYU.

Pick: Under 154.5 (–110). 4.67 units to win 4.25.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –571.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,076 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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