In case you missed yesterday’s bets, let me explain why I have all this egg on my face. Our core strategy—our daily MLB moneyline—won. Our short-term dive—a theory about torpedo bats, temporarily depressed offense, and unders—lost, and it lost badly. Not quite badly enough to make yesterday a losing day, but badly enough to make it close.
More thoughts on the unders below.
We’re giving them one more day.
New York (NL) at Sacramento
This is the system play. David Peterson’s easy to overestimate, a recognizable name with a decent track record, a good ERA through two starts, and a bad xERA and FIP. We’re curious about the A’s home-field advantage or lack thereof, but as has been the case a few times now, the value grades out as big enough to make that irrelevant. Give us Sacramento, whether they call themselves that or not.
Pick: Sacramento to win +112. 15.00 units to win 16.80. Peterson and Ginn must start.
MLB Unders
With yesterday’s results included, the week-to-date league-wide batting average is up to .227, with week-to-date scoring up to 4.00 runs per team per game. I believe .227 would be tied for the worst single-week batting average over at least the last year, with 4.00 runs per team per game at least among the worst scoring totals, if not the worst scoring total. My best guess is that the early-week results were indeed a blip. But I’m curious enough to give this one more shot. One unit on each, not two like yesterday.
Pick: DET/MIN u8.5 –115. 1.00 unit to win 0.87.
Pick: PHI/STL u8 –113. 1.00 unit to win 0.88.
Pick: SF/NYY u8 –110. 1.00 unit to win 0.91.
Pick: TOR/BAL u8 +100. 1.00 unit to win 1.00.
Pick: NYM/ATH u9.5 –125. 1.00 unit to win 0.80.
Pick: WSH/MIA u7.5 –105. 1.00 unit to win 0.95.
Pick: BOS/CHW u7.5 –105. 1.00 unit to win 0.95.
Pick: ATL/TB u8.5 +105. 1.00 unit to win 1.05.
Pick: KC/CLE u7.5 –113. 1.00 unit to win 0.88.
Pick: PIT/CIN u8.5 –115. 1.00 unit to win 0.87.
Pick: LAA/HOU u9 –125. 1.00 unit to win 0.80.
Pick: MIL/ARZ u9 –115. 1.00 unit to win 0.87.
Pick: COL/SD u8.5 –120. 1.00 unit to win 0.83.
Pick: CHC/LAD u9 –115. 1.00 unit to win 0.87.
Pick: TEX/SEA u7 –113. 1.00 unit to win 0.88.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –114.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –3% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 274 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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