Another loss yesterday. Not a terrible start to the baseball season, but not what we’ve wanted.
AL West
We talked about this yesterday: The AL West is probably pretty open this year. And so far, it looks like markets are continuing their trend of being one year late on the Rangers.
Pick: Texas to win +200. 2.00 units to win 4.00.
AL Central
You may have noticed this or had it pointed out to you (thanks to the many who’ve pointed it out to us), but the whole AL Central is 2–4 so far. It’s the first week, so that doesn’t mean the division is going to be mediocre, but the division is probably going to be mediocre. In a setting like that, it helps that we know the Tigers’ front office wants to win.
Pick: Detroit to win +240. 2.00 units to win 4.80.
Colorado at Philadelphia
The Rockies are a big underdog. Most likely, the Phillies win this game and complete the sweep. But there’s a good angle on Colorado: Senzatela got hit around his last time out, but the Rockies’ bullpen is pretty fresh. Walker’s coming off a terrible year, and the Phillies host the Dodgers for three these next three days. This early in the season, there’s the potential for the Phils to look ahead to that, especially if they fall behind early. And while the Rockies offense stinks and will stink, it isn’t going to average two runs per game for the whole year like it has so far.
Pick: Colorado to win +185. 15.00 units to win 27.75. (Senzatela and Walker must start.)
UC Irvine vs. Chattanooga
The market tonight is hewing very close to kenpom.
We have a lot of futures upside on Chattanooga, so we’re loathe to go in heavier on the Mocs. That said, whatever home crowd advantage exists tonight should go to UTC. They’re going to have the bigger crowd. If that mostly shakes out in how the game is officiated, we see an angle where UC Irvine’s “physical without fouling” defense gets a tougher whistle. It’s not much of an angle, but in this one, it’s the best we can do.
Pick: Over 145.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
NCAA Tournament
We see value on Houston and Auburn in the NCAAT Final Four. We see more value on Auburn, and before placing this one, we had higher upside on Houston. For those wondering, we’ll get at least 13.50 units from the NIT futures, and we currently only stand to lose nine units from these, some of which (Tennessee, Michigan State) we’ve counted already.
Pick: Auburn to win +575. 1.00 unit to win 5.75.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –320.87 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –10% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 244 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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