The two World Series favorites, and…Sacramento.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
We only have one spot-based bet today (we liked the Nationals, but there might be storms in Kansas City and we think Bailey Falter’s better accustomed to chaos than Cade Cavalli, with the former having spent so much time on the Pirates). It’s the Phillies. Taijuan Walker’s not trustworthy, and the Reds are hard to read, and Andrew Abbott’s great. But the Phillies as an underdog in this? That’s too far, especially with Walker’s upside and Abbott making a few recent concerning outings.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +109. 0.99 units to win 1.08. Walker and Abbott must start.
Los Angeles at Anaheim
Heat Index’s first choice today is the Dodgers, who over the last three weeks have hit 19% better than league-average while pitching 20% better. Keep doing that and the wins should come. Especially against the Angels, whose FIP since July 21st is only better than those of the Twins and Rockies.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –172. 1.07 units to win 0.62. Yamamoto and Soriano must start.
Tampa Bay at Sacramento
Heat Index’s second choice is the A’s over the Rays, in another where the A’s are playing well (124 wRC+, 90 FIP–) and the Rays are not, at least at the plate (76 wRC+).
Pick: Sacramento to win –107. 0.67 units to win 0.63. Pepiot and Springs must start.
NLCS
The Cubs are playing badly, and they have a recent history of slumping in August and September on at least one side of the ball. That’s probably creating a little opportunity here. While they’re far from a good product on the field (and their on-paper product is good–not–great, with a bizarre approach to rotation construction which borders on sabotage), they’re probably going to make the playoffs, and FanGraphs has them likelier than the Padres or Mets to host a Wild Card Series. That makes this a good price, and with hardly any Cubs futures in our portfolio, we’re going to take that price.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +900. 4.00 units to win 36.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.55 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 578 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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