We got some futures opportunity today, but unfortunately not the kind we really want. We were hoping for something on a favorite, even an expensive favorite. Instead, we’ve got Final Four futures on 7, 9, and 11-seeds.
We’re still due to place 15 units tomorrow, so we’ll try to start clawing back. That, or Texas will knock off Gonzaga tonight and we’ll be in an intriguing position.
NCAA Tournament
Utah State is the really valuable one here, with Arizona such a popular futures pick because they don’t have any noteworthy injuries while Duke and Michigan have some. But, Texas and Miami are valuable too, and with our one futures favorite Purdue (to make the Sweet Sixteen), this directionally works for us. Hook ‘em.
Pick: Utah State to make Final Four +6000. 5.00 units to win 300.00.
Pick: Texas to make Final Four +5000. 5.00 units to win 250.00.
Pick: Miami (FL) to make Final Four +4500. 5.00 units to win 225.00.
Liberty at Nevada
The Mountain West has looked good so far in the NCAA Tournament and NIT, going 5–1 against the kenpom spread. Conference USA is 2–1. Still good, but enough to justify this, especially with bettors potentially underestimating the crowd in Reno, which figures to be a little bigger than the already impactful one from the first round.
Pick: Nevada –7.5 (–110). 4.24 units to win 3.85.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –565.80 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,105 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
