Today’s Best Bets: Regression

Not our best yesterday. Not our worst, but not the day we wanted.

Sunday Night Football, and back to Feast Week.


Tampa Bay at LA Rams

Everything’s going well for the Rams right now. We don’t like that. In the NFL, regression comes for everyone.

Pick: Tampa Bay +7 (–105). 1.05 units to win 1.00.


Utah State vs. Davidson

Yes, Davidson’s had good luck with its opponents missing threes. But Charleston might have a bit of a pro-Davidson crowd, and they’re well-built to keep games close. No need to give Utah State this point and a half beyond the kenpom line.

Pick: Davidson +9.5 (–110). 1.10 units to win 1.00.

**

I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –538.04 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 961 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

**

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
Posts created 3741

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Begin typing your search term above and press enter to search. Press ESC to cancel.