A lot of streaks got broken yesterday, including our run of good or neutral MLB moneyline results. It’s a good time for a Tuesday.
Toronto at Chicago (AL)
The storms moving through right before gametime here are concerning, but who do we think rain delays favor? The team with more inclination to bear down than let up.
Pick: Toronto to win –182. 16.05 units to win 8.82. Bassitt and Civale must start.
Washington at St. Louis
Similar story here, where markets seem held back by 1) Jake Irvin’s tendency to be competitive despite bad underlying numbers and 2) the Nationals’ shakeup creating the potential for improvement. Those are reasonable theories, but this is a Tuesday. The expected tends to happen on Tuesdays.
Pick: St. Louis to win –220. 19.40 units to win 8.82. Irvin and Gray must start.
Texas at Anaheim
Out in California, we agree that Nathan Eovaldi’s good. The problem is that he’s on a low pitch count and that although he’s good, the Rangers aren’t.
Pick: Anaheim to win +105. 8.40 units to win 8.82. Eovaldi and Soriano must start.
Atlanta at Sacramento
And further up the coast, we continue to buy that the Braves have something internally destructive going on, explicitly or otherwise.
Pick: Sacramento to win +104. 8.48 units to win 8.82. Fuentes and Springs must start.
World Series
The Mariners haven’t allowed a run since last Thursday, and they haven’t had to trot Emerson Hancock back out there in a minute. The value here hasn’t gone away.
Pick: Seattle to win +3000. 2.00 units to win 60.00.
NLCS
And on the higher-probability side, we’re sticking with the Phils. Not a great showing last night, but that’s kind of the deal with them. The consistent part is that they tend to bounce back before bad stretches turn calamitous.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +490. 2.00 units to win 9.80.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –421.20 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 462 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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