Tough one yesterday. Could really use another big Tuesday.
As a reminder about our Tuesday approach: We only consider teams whose record in their last X games is better than that of their opponents, with X the smallest number possible. Spelled out: If the teams played each other yesterday, we’ll only consider the winner. If this is the start of a new series and one team won Sunday while the other lost, we’ll only consider the winner. If one team’s on a longer winning streak or shorter losing streak than the other, we’ll only consider that team. If both teams won their last game and lost the one before it but one is 2–1 over their last three while the other is 1–2, we’ll consider the 2–1 team.
This process started three years ago, when we tested this approach and happened to notice it was highly successful on Tuesdays and highly unsuccessful on Sundays. We didn’t find anything notable enough on the other days to justify pursuing, but we’ve stuck with betting winners on Tuesdays and losers on Sundays, and somehow, it’s kept working.
Sacramento at Tampa Bay
It feels very bad to bet on Team A one night and Team B the next and see both lose. More likely than not, that’s what we’re about to experience, having lost with the Rays yesterday. Still, Jeffrey Springs has been capable, with four straight quality starts before Thursday’s five-inning, three-run outing. Shane Baz has been good, but what he did against the Royals on Thursday was the exception more than it’s been the norm.
Pick: Sacramento to win +144. 1.47 units to win 2.12. Springs and Baz must start.
Milwaukee at New York (NL)
There’s a good chance this will get rained out, but there’s a winners vs. losers element here that’s probably amplified by the chance of a delay. It doesn’t hurt that Clay Holmes’s FIP and xERA indicate some impending regression.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +117. 1.81 units to win 2.12. Peralta and Holmes must start.
Anaheim at Atlanta
Similar story here, right down to the rain and another suspect pitcher with the last name Holmes. Grant Holmes is walking a lot of batters these days.
It’s weird to call the Angels winners, and they do have a losing record, but this is a team in the top half of the American League. They’ve withstood a lot so far, and they’ve rattled off some impressive winning streaks. We like the bats to keep it going down south.
Pick: Anaheim to win +171. 1.24 units to win 2.12. Anderson and Holmes must start.
Houston at Colorado
Finally, the most likely key to a profitable day. If Colton Gordon—the not–really–a–prospect who’s going five innings every start, striking out five and walking one—can just keep things manageable in Denver, the Astros should handle this series opener.
There’s rain in the forecast here too. We might end up with ATH vs. TB as our only game of the night again. That would make a loss there feel even worse.
Pick: Houston to win –150. 3.18 units to win 2.12. Gordon and Dollander must start.
ALCS
After last night’s win in their series opener, the Blue Jays are only two games back of the Yankees in the AL East. They’re also one of only six American League teams with winning records. They’re also one of only six AL teams FanGraphs projects to finish with a winning record.
The AL playoff race isn’t over. Most likely, someone—believable possibilities range from the Guardians to the Angels—will climb back into it. But the Blue Jays are a strong team in a strong position, and we can still get some value on them here. We’ll take it.
Pick: Toronto to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
World Series
Elsewhere, a little more on the Phillies, who continue to make the most of the Mets’ skid. The Phils are currently half a game back of the Astros for the third-best record in baseball. They have a lights out rotation. You wouldn’t know either of those things from looking at futures markets.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –422.15 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 438 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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