Great day yesterday to cap a great weekend. Still way in the hole overall on the fiscal year, but at least better than it was.
We’ll be regrouping these next few weeks and figuring out our approach to the rest of basketball and hockey season. In the meantime, it’s going to be little college basketball bets here and there. Like this one.
Xavier at St. John’s
KU vs. Arizona is a little too big a game for us to trust our fundamentals on it. Louisville’s line against NC State is too far from kenpom for comfort. That leads us to Xavier and St. John’s, where the total is close enough to kenpom to not be worried we’re missing anything massive but far enough away to give an indication which way folks sharper than us are probably leaning. We’re not very confident in our college basketball betting right now, but we’re going to make small, controlled plays rather than flail. Flailing can wait at least a month.
Pick: Over 160.5 (+100). 4.24 units to win 4.24.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –572.16 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,064 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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