Good day yesterday. Hopefully it’s a sign of the weekend to come.
Still extraordinarily small units. Need a division to get clinched so we get some cash flow back.
Tampa Bay at Chicago (NL)
Maybe I’m drinking the kool-aid too hard, but I think the Cubs are competitive right now. Even if I’ll never feel comfortable with Colin Rea as a rotation starter.
Pick: Chicago to win +100. 0.32 units to win 0.32. Rasmussen and Rea must start.
Houston at Atlanta
Bryce Elder’s been good lately, but it’s Hunter Brown. Also doesn’t hurt that the Astros’ offense had a good night last night. They need those.
Pick: Houston to win –129. 0.41 units to win 0.32. Brown and Elder must start.
St. Louis at Milwaukee
Heat Index’s first choice is again the Brewers. It helps our faith in Heat Index that Sonny Gray’s looked older lately, and Jacob Misiorowski’s numbers are probably better than his perception. Things swing fast.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –152. 0.44 units to win 0.29. Gray and Misiorowski must start.
Anaheim at Seattle
Heat Index’s second choice is the Mariners. Keep it going, sailors.
Pick: Seattle to win –225. 0.65 units to win 0.29. Farris and Woo must start.
Cincinnati at Sacramento
Last (on the baseball side), having been on the wrong side of Hunter Greene a lot of times, we’re jumping at this one.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –115. 0.37 units to win 0.32. Greene and Severino must start.
Arkansas at Mississippi
Is Austin Simmons really a game-time decision, or is Lane Kiffin revolting against the new injury-faking rules with a different kind of injury-faking?
I’m only half-kidding.
Arkansas’s offense is potent, but this feels like one where the betting markets fell prey to groupthink.
Pick: Mississippi –5 (–110). 0.14 units to win 0.13.
Florida at LSU
We’re all about doubting this LSU team, and we don’t think Florida’s that bad. But LSU should beat Florida. There shouldn’t be doubt about this piece of it. LSU isn’t a top-three team, but they should be able to handle Florida by a touchdown.
Pick: LSU –6.5 (–110). 0.14 units to win 0.13.
Texas A&M at Notre Dame
Similarly, Notre Dame should be better than Texas A&M. Don’t overthink it.
Pick: Notre Dame –6.5 (–105). 0.13 units to win 0.12.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina
And finally: Diego Pavia is so popular and South Carolina’s called wolf so many times. But South Carolina should be better than Vanderbilt, and even a tenth of a point better makes this the side.
Pick: South Carolina –3 (–105). 0.13 units to win 0.12.
Bristol Night Race
The fact the other two Penskes qualified top-three is a good time. Logano’s a competent racer who only needs a good finish to survive this round of the playoffs. Hard to find anything better than this tonight.
Pick: Joey Logano to finish top ten +135. 0.09 units to win 0.12.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –484.97 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 731 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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