Three good days in a row. Trying to stack ‘em.
Notre Dame at SMU
This game’s total is currently wobbling, which makes me wonder if the market has only just gotten around to handicapping it. If that’s the case, there’s a chance the market’s missing a gem, with SMU only one point beyond the kenpom line in a game where Notre Dame has spiral potential.
Pick: SMU –11 (–105). 4.49 units to win 4.28.
Iowa State at TCU
This is a big number for a game with TCU’s offense, but it’s even bigger elsewhere. We found the low line, and we’re going to ride it.
Pick: Over 146.5 (–110). 4.71 units to win 4.28.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –567.92 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,065 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
