Two straight losses now, which is concerning for a very simple method that was only working over a very small sample.
That said.
We can’t think of anything better.
Alabama at Georgia
On principle, I hope we lose this. But the market seems to doubt kenpom’s 183-point total, and our method is to follow the market on these high-profile games with totals close to kenpom’s.
Pick: Under 180.5 (–110). 4.73 units to win 4.30.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –566.45 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,090 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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