We started the weekend strong with the Indiana pick, but Notre Dame was inconceivably bad on Saturday and then Nebraska and Oregon made their free throws at the end yesterday, and they took a lot of free throws. The result? A 3–3 weekend.
We’ll have our second Super Bowl bet tomorrow (final one of the three comes on Friday), but for tonight…
Virginia @ Pitt
My initial reaction to seeing this line in the double digits was surprise. Pitt is a solid team, but they’re not one I’d call good. Virginia plays so slowly. Monday games can be difficult even for good coaches, and I don’t tend to take Jeff Capel particularly seriously.
It seems like a lot of bettors are reacting similarly.
I haven’t looked at the numbers on who’s betting what between sharps and squares, but the fact this line is exactly on its kenpom number seems unusual, at least to me. Generally, with a conference game, I’d expect another point or two towards the home team. It’s scary to bet a team as unimpressive as Pitt to cover a number well into the double digits on a Monday night against an opponent who mucks it up. That’s probably a sign we should do it.’
With our customary under/favorite pairing, we’ll ideally see Virginia score 58 points or fewer. That gets us at least one win and opens us up to notch a sweep.
Pick: Pitt –13 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 130.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –93.02 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 53 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
