We got hot.
We got cocky.
We got obliterated on a six-moneyline day.
A tale as old as time.
We’ll get back on the horse today, looking for a big Sunday as we try to hit back against the market that socked us in the mouth. More MLB action ahead, plus F1 and NASCAR.
Houston at Boston
The Astros are banged up. The Red Sox are streaky. Nothing is new under the sun. Framber Valdez is good, though, and Lucas Giolito’s been too hot and cold to justify acting on our fear of him—or rather, failing to act on the numbers indicating the Astros should be a bigger favorite here, especially when the Red Sox might be inclined to give a Sunday day off or two themselves.
Pick: Houston to win –125. 1.75 units to win 1.40. Valdez and Giolito must start.
Milwaukee at Washington
The issue for Jacob Misiorowski is the pitch count. The man doesn’t make it through very many innings. Bradley Lord’s been competitive in his limited sample. This is probably a good price.
Pick: Washington to win +149. 0.94 units to win 1.40. Misiorowski and Lord must start.
San Francisco at New York (NL)
Similarly, while Carson Whisenhunt might be bad, there’s more reason to believe he might be good than there is for Frankie Montas, an uncharacteristic rotation placeholder for a franchise generally willing to overpay to plug gaps.
Pick: San Francisco to win +147. 0.95 units to win 1.40. Whisenhunt and Montas must start.
Chicago (AL) at Anaheim
Finally, the Angels again. We just don’t think the White Sox are good enough, even against the recently demoted Jack Kochanowicz, for this to represent a fair price.
Pick: Anaheim to win –120. 1.68 units to win 1.40. Burke and Kochanowicz must start.
Iowa Corn 350 (NASCAR)
Joey Logano’s Penske teammates are starting this fourth and sixth, implying he’s got a good car. He’s always been best at short tracks, at least in terms of average finish. He didn’t qualify great, but he didn’t qualify terribly. Plus-money odds aren’t a bad price for that.
Pick: Joey Logano to finish top ten +115. 0.45 units to win 0.52.
Hungarian Grand Prix (Formula 1)
McLaren’s won ten of thirteen races this year and starts two drivers inside the top three. Charles Leclerc is probably a little underrated here, but the bigger risk is markets underrating Oscar Piastri, the better driver of the two driving the best car.
Pick: Oscar Piastri to win –125. 0.65 units to win 0.52.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –489.58 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 545 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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