The Georgia rain stopped in time. We got another win. On to today.
Houston at Miami
The Astros beat the red-hot Marlins last night, and…that shouldn’t be news. These Astros should be favored every time they play these Marlins. Yes, the Marlins got hot. They might even stay hot. They’re probably better than their on-paper projections suggest. But the Astros should be favored against the Marlins, especially without Edward Cabrera or Eury Pérez starting for Florida.
Pick: Houston to win –103. 1.88 units to win 1.83. Okert and Quantrill must start.
Sacramento at Washington
We speculated last week about MacKenzie Gore being a little distracted by the trade talk. The take aged well. Today, we’ll add something else: Maybe Luis Severino isn’t distracted anymore by his beef with his own employers. The A’s didn’t move him at the deadline. They didn’t even talk about it seriously enough for it to become a loud rumor. We like the more competitive team in this one, even on the road in what would normally be a pitching mismatch.
Pick: Sacramento to win +121. 1.51 units to win 1.83. Severino and Gore must start.
Tampa Bay at Anaheim
The last time we saw Ryan Pepiot, he was allowing seven earned runs in four innings to the limping Yankees. José Soriano? He might be bettors’ favorite pitcher this year. As we’ve said a couple times now: I don’t think people realize how badly the Rays have been playing.
Pick: Anaheim to win –122. 2.23 units to win 1.83. Pepiot and Soriano must start.
NL East
How big is a 1.5-game lead in the NL East? It depends how good you are and where you are in the season and how hard your schedule is the rest of the way. But right now, FanGraphs has the Phillies 67% likely to take that division. And if they do take that division…
Pick: Philadelphia to win –180. 2.00 units to win 1.11.
NLCS
…They’ll probably get a first round bye.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +475. 2.00 units to win 9.50.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 552 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
