It was a bad day yesterday, but it wasn’t quite a disaster. We thank the Angels for that.
Seattle at New York (AL)
The Yankees are bouncing back, which we probably should have expected. The problem here is that the market seems to be ignoring the Marcus Stroman piece of this equation. Stroman’s made 17 appearances over the last 365 days. He’s recorded a quality start only twice in that stretch. Three times as often, he’s failed to record four innings worth of outs.
Pick: Seattle to win –103. 3.24 units to win 3.15. Woo and Stroman must start.
Tampa Bay at Boston
Again, I just don’t think markets are making enough of the starting pitchers here. Buehler made a good outing in Washington on Saturday, but he’s still walked 14 batters over his last four starts, striking out only ten and lasting an average of only four-ish innings. He can pitch well, and he did carve up the Rays a month ago, but these are the Rays—they aren’t exactly a franchise known for headcase stuff like thinking a 5.77-FIP pitcher has their number.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +101. 3.12 units to win 3.15. Bradley and Buehler must start.
Cleveland at Chicago (AL)
The Rockies are a really, really, really bad team, like last year’s White Sox were. This year’s White Sox? They’re still projected by FanGraphs to win only 58 games, and they’re on track to win only 54. The Guardians are rocky but they did just sweep the Astros in Houston. The White Sox don’t deserve this much credit.
Pick: Cleveland to win –127. 4.00 units to win 3.15. Allen and Cannon must start.
Texas at Anaheim
We’ve bet against Patrick Corbin a decent amount this year, but this is the kind of game where we like him: Both bullpens are spent. Both teams are mediocre. This is where a professional is useful, and Corbin’s one of the most professional starters in the game. Good? Rarely. Professional? Yes.
Pick: Texas to win +102. 3.08 units to win 3.14. Corbin and Kochanowicz must start.
NLCS
The markets are slow to catch up on the Brewers, and there’s narrow value on the Mets. This gives us one high-EV play (Milwaukee) and one higher-probability play (NYM), which isn’t the worst way to balance our daily approach.
Pick: New York to win +650. 2.00 units to win 13.00.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +2000. 2.00 units to win 40.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –427.21 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 472 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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