Apologies for not accounting directly for Texas Tech’s injuries yesterday. Really obvious oversight I should have at least mentioned. We might have gone with the over anyway, and lost, but I should have addressed it.
Two more for tonight, both…overs. (Sorry, not sorry.)
Baylor at Cincinnati
Jayden Nunn’s status is still up in the air, but if that’s what’s holding this total down, I don’t think it should. He’s stronger offensively than defensively, but so is Baylor. His absence should be felt on both ends.
As far as pace goes: Yes, both these teams play slow. But it’s rare for either to play as slowly as they played last time. Kenpom has this at 64 possessions. It landed on 60 last time. We’ll trust the fundamentals.
Pick: Over 136.5 (–117). 10.00 units to win 8.55.
Iowa at Illinois
Call me a romantic, but I like to think Fran McCaffery and Brad Underwood will each try to beat the other to 100 in what might be the last ever meeting between these grumpy middle-aged men. Morez Johnson’s absence obviously makes Illinois worse, but that’s probably showing up more defensively than offensively. It might even make Illinois’s offense better? Johnson puts up big numbers, but the Illini move the ball differently when he’s on the floor.
Pick: Over 170.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –69.82 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 100 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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