We’re up to 4–1 on Wild Card Weekend. We’re going to run the ball.
Houston at Pittsburgh
The biggest risk with our “FPI but with 1.75 points of home-field advantage” approach is misunderstanding FPI’s approach to a major injury. The second-biggest risk is taking the wrong approach to home-field advantage. If anything, it’s gotta be larger tonight.
This still tracks with the commonsense description of our approach, too—favorites can get a little inflated in games heavily bet by the public. It’s hard to envision a team losing by one or two points. Understandably hard, because that’s rare. But it happens often enough to substantially move the needle.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3 (–115). 5.73 units to win 4.98.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –508.70 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,031 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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