Not a lot of movement in World Series lines. Not a lot of winning on weeknight college football lately. We’ll keep working on both, and we’ll add in this week’s NFL and CFB futures. (We’re tentatively planning on doing this week’s NBA and NHL futures tomorrow.)
World Series
This specific price moved in the opposite direction from what we were expecting, and it was already a little bit valuable. We’ll take it, even if it’s more on the side of our upside (Blue Jays) than our downside (Dodgers). We wouldn’t mind getting “Dodgers in 7” to be a profitable scenario for our portfolio overall.
Pick: Toronto +1.5 games (–105). 22.00 units to win 20.95.
Middle Tennessee at Delaware
We do have concerns here that the market’s seeing something we’re not. What we’re seeing, though, is that Delaware and MTSU have both performed similarly relative to reasonable expectations this year, with MTSU a little snakebit. The fundamentals (Movelor, Sagarin, etc.) suggest Delaware should cover here. Add in the possibility that MTSU quits (they’re 1–5 overall), and we’re only emboldened.
Pick: Delaware –9.5 (–110). 4.07 units to win. 3.70.
CFP National Championship
Nothing fancy on the college football futures this week. Ohio State is clearly the best team in the country right now. There’s reason to believe they could improve from here (unlike Indiana, for example). They’re not favored over the field, but 3-to-1 is way too long.
Pick: Ohio State to win +300. 7.00 units to win 21.00.
Super Bowl
There’s value on the Chiefs this week, and when that’s the case we usually take it.
Pick: Kansas City to win +475. 3.00 units to win 14.25.
AFC
There’s value on the Chiefs this week, and when that’s the case we usually take it.
We’ll add a little to the Colts and Steelers too. Great value on those two.
Pick: Kansas City to win +250. 5.00 units to win 12.50.
Pick: Indianapolis to win +500. 1.00 unit to win 5.00.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +2200. 1.00 unit to win 22.00.
NFC
The value’s solid on the Rams, who are also probable enough to make this worth our while. We’ll work on getting our tracking better built out soon so that we can check in on profit probability, median outcome, etc.
Pick: LA Rams to win +650. 2.00 units to win 13.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –447.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 849 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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