Big day today. All the futures, Thursday Night Football, and of course some single-elimination baseball.
NLDS: Milwaukee vs. Chicago or San Diego
There’s narrow value available on the Padres today, and that’s something that helps our Brewers-heavy portfolio. Yes, the Padres might lose today, but there’s better than a 50/50 chance that whoever wins today will get to Game 3 of the Division Series as the series favorite.
Pick: San Diego to win +270. 2.00 units to win 5.40.
World Series
On the World Series side, this market’s rapidly moving, but the latest we saw the Dodgers at was +350. That’s a good price. The bullpen’s shaky but bullpens are so fickle. Nothing else is shaky. This is the healthiest Dodger rotation in recent memory.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +350. 2.00 units to win 7.00.
Boston at New York (AL)
Two mistake-prone teams under high pressure, one with a tired bullpen and one with an exhausted bullpen, both starting rookies?
This isn’t going to feel over until the 27th out. If that.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100). 2.77 units to win 2.77.
San Francisco at LA Rams
We trust FPI, and FPI is not high on the 49ers this week. (We use a blanket 1.75-point home-field advantage instead of digging around and finding FPI’s exact spread, for those wondering.)
Pick: LA Rams –8.5 (–110). 6.09 units to win 5.54.
Super Bowl
FPI’s narrowly showing value on the Chiefs, and we’ll happily get at least a little bit of that into our portfolio. We’ll probably want it eventually.
Pick: Kansas City to win +1000. 1.00 unit to win 10.00.
NFC
Similar story here with the Eagles, though we have to put more down to make them a meaningful chip. We’ll also add a little on the Seahawks, where the value’s a little better.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +325. 5.00 units to win 16.25.
Pick: Seattle to win +2200. 1.00 unit to win 22.00.
AFC
These odds match how good the Patriots probably are, but they don’t match the leverage the Patriots have. It’s a good path.
Pick: New England to win +4500. 1.00 unit to win 45.00.
AFC East
That said, even 14-to-1 is only a value play.
Pick: New England to win +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
NFC East
More narrow value here. We like having a few favorites in our division portfolio just in case someone (Colts, Chargers, Lions) doesn’t work out as expected.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –375. 3.00 units to win 0.80.
Sam Houston at New Mexico State
Movelor has Sam Houston favored by only 0.3 here, and Movelor might not have caught up to Sam Houston yet (in the bad way). The Bearkats have yet to cover a Movelor spread and are, per game, the most disappointing team in the country relative to Movelor’s preseason expectations. NMSU’s about what Movelor expected them to be.
Pick: New Mexico State +2 (–110). 3.05 units to win 2.77.
College Football Playoff
Nothing on the Heisman this week, since Ruben Bain Jr.’s the likeliest weekend breakout star and I can’t find him listed anywhere. Dante Moore’s the favorite and we’ve got money on him. Ty Simpson’s second but it’s hard to believe we’re buying low on a guy coming off a win in Athens. Carson Beck’s third and we’ve got money on him. Jeremiah Smith’s fourth and we don’t think the numbers are there yet. Diego Pavia’s getting close, and he probably won’t beat Bama but if he does we have him at 50-to-1. We’re feeling fine about the Heisman.
We did finally build two-team and three-team tiebreakers into our model, so we could work on conference betting, but that plays into playoff field betting just as much. We’ve been holding off on non-SEC and Big Ten teams. Let’s fire some off:
Memphis is the Group of Five favorite, and it’s not that close right now. They’re not favored over the field, but they’re at 42% per our model. This is a good price.
Iowa State lost both its starting cornerbacks for the season but this is college football, Iowa State plays in the wide-open Big 12, and if the Cyclones survive Cincinnati they’re going to be 6–0. Good value there as well.
Virginia probably isn’t good enough to make the playoff, but Movelor’s probably overweighting the NC State result and underweighting the Florida State result (Movelor thinks FSU is perfectly mediocre) and our model’s still showing value on the Hoos.
Louisville’s probably going to beat Virginia this weekend, and the Cards enjoy a clear path to 11–1 if they take care of business.
Utah has a bad loss by margin to Texas Tech, but Texas Tech keeps rising and Utah’s played well aside from that game. Good value.
TCU only lost to the defending Big 12 champions by a field goal on the road. They’re in the mix.
Finally, Illinois: These guys have a great path to 10–2. The only bowl-likely team they still have to play on the road is Washington. They get a crack at Ohio State at home, which is kind of a no-lose for them. Our model’s pretty aggressive about punishing blowout losses. It’s just hard to see a 10–2 Big Ten team not making the field. Especially if USC finishes ranked, which they probably will.
No favorites this week, but we don’t need them. If Oregon, Indiana, and Miami all make the playoff, this is all paid for.
Pick: Memphis to make playoff +375. 1.00 unit to win 3.75.
Pick: Iowa State to make playoff +400. 1.00 unit to win 4.00.
Pick: Louisville to make playoff +450. 1.00 unit to win 4.50.
Pick: Utah to make playoff +600. 1.00 unit to win 6.00.
Pick: TCU to make playoff +850. 1.00 unit to win 8.50.
Pick: Virginia to make playoff +1000. 1.00 unit to win 10.00.
Pick: Illinois to make playoff +1600. 1.00 unit to win 16.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –422.25 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 807 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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