Today’s Best Bets: Notre Dame’s Defense (in the Bad Way)

We’ve had bright spots the last couple days. No such bright spot last night. Texas isn’t good. South Carolina isn’t that bad. That’s on us.


Notre Dame at Louisville

Notre Dame’s allowed at least 80 points in five of its last six games, and only two of those games broke 70 possessions. Louisville should have a good time tonight. (The spread’s even further from the kenpom standard.)

Pick: Over 156 (–115). 3.52 units to win 3.06.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –609.99 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,058 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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