Today’s Best Bets: Not UConn

Good stuff from Texas and Nebraska yesterday on the futures front. Good stuff from Nevada at the end against the spread. Futures interests today are Utah State and Miami. If one of those pulls off the upset, we’ll be in really good shape.


NCAA Tournament

I don’t fully buy Duke, but at some point, you have to trust the numbers, and with so many other contenders also dealing with injuries, this isn’t a bad price at all. Plus, for as big-name as their region is…is there any team in it that you trust?

Pick: Duke to win +425. 15.00 units to win 63.75.

UConn vs. UCLA

On that note…

We liked this even before worrying about injuries or conference-by-conference performance. Those factors only make it look better.

Pick: UCLA +4.5 (–105). 3.93 units to win 3.74.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –561.95 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,106 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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