Another good day yesterday, as we continued our best run in a little while. Hold on tight.
New York (NL) at Detroit
We don’t trust Clay Holmes and we do trust Casey Mize, but this is Heat Index’s second choice today, and Heat Index’s second choice has a 12.91% average return so far this season after a strong run last year around this time in the calendar. We will defer to our tool.
Pick: New York to win –116. 0.45 units to win 0.39. Holmes and Mize must start.
Philadelphia at Milwaukee
On the spot-based side, we think the Phillies should be favored here. Aaron Nola hasn’t been sharp since returning from the IL, but he hasn’t been terrible and his bullpen is fresh. Jose Quintana’s disintegration is overdue, and the Brewers will rally after a tough one on Monday but they’re not the better team.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –101. 0.64 units to win 0.63. Nola and Quintana must start.
New York (AL) at Houston
Heat Index’s first choice is also a spot-based play. When a team’s ace is throwing at his own catcher, that team has a problem, even if the Mariners keep struggling to make the Astros pay for it.
Pick: New York to win –122. 1.25 units to win 1.02. Warren and Alexander must start.
NL West
The value’s still there on the Dodgers in this market, and it’s not quite too expensive to pass up.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –450. 4.00 units to win 0.89.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –492.24 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 691 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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