We picked up two more wins last night, and we believe that means that even if we lose both of these, we’re up on the year as a whole. (We really need to put together that Google Sheet tracking all of our results. I already messed up our daily math once or twice, but I think the numbers at the bottom are correct.)
With nothing else to say:
College Basketball
We’re playing with fire with the first of these. NDSU plays UMKC, and we don’t know NDSU’s injury situation, if there is one. What we do know is that NDSU shoots the lights out of a whole bunch of gyms, and that while this involves some inconsistency, it overall begets a team who on average is probably the Summit League’s best. I think bettors might be hesitating here because UMKC has strong perimeter defense numbers. If that’s what’s happening, it’s dumb. Three-point defense is not a particularly predictive stat.
Elsewhere, we like Nebraska to keep winning home games. A lot of why we bet all these favorites is that we’re looking for games where one team expects to win and the other expects to lose. We think that exists and is impactful in college basketball.
Pick: North Dakota State to win –450. 40.00 units to win 8.89.
Pick: Nebraska to win –400. 40.00 units to win 10.00.
**
2025: +98.44 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: 19% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 16 picks)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
