Today’s Best Bets: NIT Time

Tough stuff for our futures the last few days. Should’ve hedged before Duke vs. UConn, when we had the leverage.

We’ll see what we can get back. Might get ugly.


NIT Championship

We’re going against some of our principles here, meaning we’re going against kenpom, but Auburn’s coming off what might have been its best game of the year, and while that’s no guarantee of future performance, it was enough to sway us. We’ll take the moneyline and put what we would win on the spread to try to chip away at our deficit.

Pick: Auburn to win –250. 36.00 units to win 14.40.
Pick: Auburn –5.5 (–110). 14.00 units to win 12.73.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –562.36 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,114 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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