I have good news and bad news. The good news is that we’re doing another futures portfolio: 210 units of college basketball futures, with the plan being to place two five-unit futures each day. The bad news is that neither book we reference for these bets has NIT odds offered. Did we win too much on Chattanooga last year when we realized they had a home game against Dayton? No. But someone else might have.
So, we’ll chase some NCAA Tournament value instead. Those futures first, then a pick for tonight.
NCAA Tournament
As always, we pick these with the possibility we’ll hedge out of them. That said, we’re going to approach this a little like our Heisman portfolio. By Thursday and Friday, we’ll want to be in a place where favorites winning would still leave us at least roughly even.
As for these particular longshots:
Nebraska is easy to undervalue as a bettor. They’re not an undefeated team or anything close to that quality. But they’re a good team, and Florida is the worst 1-seed, and Vanderbilt is very good but has a much tougher first round test than is natural because they’re a 5-seed. 6-to-1 is a good price on the Huskers.
Santa Clara is only a 3-point underdog in their opener, and while the Iowa State matchup is brutal, Virginia’s the worst 3-seed. 33-to-1 is, again, a good price here.
Pick: Nebraska to make Elite Eight +600. 5.00 units to win 30.00.
Pick: Santa Clara to make Elite Eight +3300. 5.00 units to win 165.00.
Stephen F. Austin at Tulsa
We’ve seen a lot of high totals in early rounds in recent NIT’s. This is one where the number isn’t far from kenpom. Maybe that’s an injury I haven’t noticed, but I’m willing to take that chance.
Pick: Over 151 (–110). 4.54 units to win 4.13.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –573.65 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,101 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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You won that Tulsa bet thanks to the foul on the 3-point shooter with 2.8 seconds left. There was a key injury affecting that game. Tulsa’s top player David Green left their previous game with what appeared to be a rather serious shoulder injury. As I expected, he was out last night and on the bench in street clothes.