5–4 on the basketball last night. 0–1 on the baseball this morning, putting us in an 0–2 hole there heading into Opening Day next week.
Every NIT and NCAA Tournament game, plus our daily college basketball future:
Mount St. Mary’s vs. American
Carmelo Pacheco is out for Mount St. Mary’s, which does help their defense. But does it help it enough? And how much does it hurt their offense? While Pacheco is incredibly efficient offensively, part of that comes from getting very few touches. We think the market reaction here is probably overblown.
Pick: Over 128 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
UAB at Saint Joseph’s
Last night, NIT overs went 7–0 against the kenpom number, clearing it by an average of 13 points and a median of 10. That’s if you don’t count the overtimes in UTC/MTSU. Is that a facet of the quick turnaround before the Tuesday games? Is it even real? The kenpom mark on this one is only 156. That’s high enough to chance it, unless Yaxel Lendeborg’s secretly out (we haven’t seen any report to that effect).
Pick: Over 160 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Samford at George Mason
Samford’s a team who didn’t expect an NIT call and had already sent its players home. That isn’t a death sentence, but we think GMU will be readier, and that its physicality will play.
Pick: George Mason –6.5 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Dayton at FAU
When in doubt, we’ll take the over. Kenpom has this at 153 as well.
Pick: Over 153 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Furman at North Texas
Kenpom’s got this one at 128, which is close enough for us to take it.
Pick: Over 131.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
North Alabama at Bradley
Kenpom has this at 145, so not a huge gap, but big enough. Especially with Zek Montgomery still, to my knowledge, opting out.
Pick: Over 145.5 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Northern Iowa at SMU
We’re not going to go universal over, and we’re in on the theory that the ACC is underrated.
Pick: SMU –9.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Texas vs. Xavier
Nate Silver’s got this at 3.5 while kenpom only has it at 1, and we’re assuming the difference comes from Silver giving Xavier a travel advantage, playing so close to Cincinnati. We’re skeptical of the importance of that, but we haven’t dug into it ourselves, so we’re not saying it isn’t true. We’re also concerned that Chendall Weaver’s return is going unnoticed. Finally, we’re concerned because people are writing off Texas, and Texas has often played well in the aftermath of a good writing-off this year.
But.
As we keep saying, we believe kenpom when he says the SEC is overrated. And we think the Big East is decently likely to be underrated.
Pick: Xavier –2.5 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
Northern Colorado at UC Irvine
Kenpom only has this at 146, so this is an over that makes us nervous, but we really don’t have a read on the spread.
Pick: Over 153 (–120). 5.00 units to win 4.17.
Loyola Chicago at San Jose State
We think the Mountain West is overrated, but after last night, we’re concerned that could be true of the A-10 as well.
Pick: Over 142 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Utah Valley at San Francisco
This one’s at 140 on kenpom, and Marcus Williams’s continued absence should hurt San Francisco’s ability to score. We don’t love all that, but we don’t know what to think about the spread (it’s at seven on kenpom, Williams hurts but we’re worried the WAC could be overrated through the same elevation phenomenon as the Mountain West), and we don’t like the under.
Pick: Over 146 (–114). 5.00 units to win 4.39.
NIT
Not all of the markets updated last night after Kent State won. They can still be had at 200-to-1 to win this.
Pick: Kent State to win +20000. 1.00 unit to win 200.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –168.01 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 156 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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